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GDP growth in FY18 to be near 8pc: minister

GDP growth in FY18 to be near 8pc: minister

Inflation falls to 5.48pc in August
Star Business Report

The country’s economic growth could hit a record high of about 8 percent in the last fiscal year in the final count, Planning Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal said yesterday.

“Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will announce the actual figure soon,” he told reporters at the auditorium of the National Economic Council.

As per the preliminary estimate, the gross domestic product growth was 7.65 percent in 2017-18, but in the final count it will be much higher, Kamal said.

He said he knew about the final GDP figure, but declined to disclose it. It will be something near 8 percent, he said.

In the current fiscal year, the growth will be 8.25 percent, he said.  The government has targeted to achieve 7.8 percent economic growth in 2018-19.

The planning minister said there will be no problem in implementing the annual development programme (ADP) in the current fiscal year.

Kamal said he had met with the secretaries of all ministries and issued a directive so that the ADP implementation is not hampered by the election, due in December.

The government has put in place a new rule that exempts files from coming to the finance minister or the planning minister for release of project funds in the first and second quarters of the fiscal year, he said.

“Funds will automatically be deposited to the accounts of the projects. So, the implementation of the ADP will not be hampered.” During the briefing, Kamal also released the inflation data.

Inflation fell slightly to 5.48 percent in August thanks to a fall in food prices. It was 5.51 percent in July.

Kamal said inflation did not increase as an adequate amount of imported goods was in stock. On the other hand, the government was active during the Eid period and the prices of essential items did not go up consequently.

In August, food inflation fell 21 basis points to 5.48 percent. In July, it rose 20 basis points to 6.18 percent.

Non-food inflation went up by 24 basis points to 4.73 percent last month. In July, it declined 62 basis points to 4.49 percent.

Zahid Hussain, lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said, “The good news is the headline inflation has continued to fall driven entirely by the decline in food inflation.”  He said it appears that the drop in rice prices played a major role. 

In August, the average price of coarse rice in Dhaka was 0.2 percent lower than in July this year and 3.2 percent lower than in August 2017.

Hussain said, “The bad news is there is further increase in non-food inflation, which has been rising since reaching its low of 3.2 percent last January.”

“It has now surpassed 4.7 percent perhaps because of a sustained high domestic demand, resulting from increased remittances and private credit growth, as well as exchange rate depreciation and seasonal factors such as Eid in August.”

The economist said demand pressures are likely to deepen in the run up to elections. 

“Continued vigilance on the part of the Bangladesh Bank particularly in maintaining prudential control over domestic credit growth will be very important in the days ahead.”

Call for ensuring safe food production

Call for ensuring safe food production

Three-day BAPA FoodPro International Expo 2018 concludes

FE Report

 

Speakers at a function on Saturday laid emphasis on ensuring safe food production to compete and tap the local and international markets.

They also made a call to promote exports and the food processing sector for giving an impetus to the country’s economy.

They made the call at the concluding ceremony of the sixth BAPA FoodPro International Expo 2018 at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre (BICC).

The Bangladesh Agro-Processors Association (BAPA) and the Extreme Exhibition and Event Management Solution Limited, an event management company, organised the three-day international fair.

Bangladesh Food Safety Authority Mohammad Mahfuzul Hoque was present as the chief guest with BAPA President A F M Fakhrul Islam Munshi in the chair.

BAPA General Secretary Md Iqtadul Hoque, among others, was present at the function.

A total of 147 organisations from home and abroad showcased various types of agro and food processing technology, and packaged foods such as snacks, frozen meat, frozen vegetables, soft drinks, juice, sauce, dairy products, sweet and species.

Some 117 foreign entrepreneurs from 15 countries put agro and food processing machinery on display.

A huge number of visitors visited the show with much enthusiasm on the last day of the exhibition as the stall owners offered discounts on various products, said the organisers.

Besides, the visitors were seen visiting at the two other concurrent events ‘5th Rice and Grain Tech Expo Bangladesh’ and ‘8th Agro Bangladesh Expo’ at the same venue.

Technical and business sessions also took place on the sidelines of the fair.

 

WB approves $515m for three projects

WB approves $515m for three projects

FE Report

The World Bank has approved $515 million for three projects in Bangladesh to aid improvement in the areas of coastal and marine fisheries, forest management, and rural roads.

The financing will benefit rural people by reducing poverty and creating new livelihood opportunities, including for local communities in Cox’s Bazar district hosting Rohingya people who fled violence in Myanmar.

“These three projects will create opportunities for the rural population and especially help the vulnerable people come out of poverty,” said Qimiao Fan, World Bank Country Director for Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. “At the same time, they will improve the country’s resilience to climate change.”

The $175 million Sustainable Forests and Livelihoods Project will help improve forest cover through a collaborative forest management approach involving local communities.

Under the project trees will be planted on about 79,000 hectares of forest, including a coastal green belt that will also help increase climate change resilience, said the WB on Saturday.

“The project will support increasing income through alternative income generation activities for about 40,000 households in the coastal, hill and central districts of the country,” said Madhavi Pillai, World Bank Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist and Task Team Leader for the project.

This will include Cox’s Bazar where nearly one million Rohingyas took shelter.

The project will particularly help the host communities through its income generation activities, improving the availability of wood for fuel in a sustainable way and reducing human-wild elephant conflict which has affected parts of the district.

The project will develop and implement Protected Area management plans for about 10 Protected Forest Areas with involvement of community members.

The $240 million Sustainable Coastal and Marine Fisheries Project will help improve fisheries management, expand mariculture and strengthen aquaculture biosecurity and productivity.

In 10 coastal districts, the project will set up community co-management associations with the fishing communities, enabling them to adopt supplementary and alternative livelihoods.

It will also empower female workers through alternative livelihoods support, skills development, and nutrition awareness.

“Fisheries are vital to the country’s food security and the sector employs more than 18 million people. After garments, fishery is the country’s second largest export earning sector,” said Milen Dyoulgerov, World Bank Senior Environment Specialist and Task Team Leader for the project.

“The project will help improve fisheries management systems, infrastructure, and other value chain investments. This will result in better productivity and availability of fish.”

The project will also help expand the current fisher ID card system, which will be linked with the geographic information system platform.

It will also improve vessel registration and licensing for fishing.

The $100 million additional financing to the Second Rural Transport Improvement Project will help rehabilitate rural roads in 26 districts that were damaged from last year’s heavy rainfall and floods.

The ongoing project has improved and repaired more than 5,000 km rural roads that helped millions of people access markets, hospitals, and schools.

The financing will factor in climate-resilience in planning, technical design, implementation and maintenance of the roads.

“The financing will continue a road safety programme to ensure traffic safety as the rural roads are facing increased motorized traffic,” said Dung Anh Hoang, World Bank Senior Transport Specialist and Task Team Leader for the project.

 

BD to miss SDG target at present pace of housing

BD to miss SDG target at present pace of housing

Experts for social housing to address the problem

FE Report

The overall housing situation of the country is poor compared to the pace of development with 6.0 million housing shortages, according to experts.

They spoke of the government’s lack of interest to take realistic measures to formalise and augment the housing supply process.

The government’s contribution is only 1.0 per cent of the total demand for housing, the experts observed.

Bangladesh will not be able to achieve the sustainable development goals’ 11th target of housing for all by 2030 if the current trend continues, they said.

All the ad hoc basis initiatives have been failing due to corruption, lack of monitoring and coordination among ministries, the experts mentioned.

They suggested social housing either by public or private or by the both.

Their main objective will be to ensure housing for all through a master plan, not to make a profit.

They made the views at a seminar on ‘Housing for All’ hosted by the Bangladesh Institute of Planners (BIP) in the capital, marking World Habitat Day 2018.

Urban Development Directorate (UDD) director Khurshid Zabin Toufique was present as the chief guest.

Four presentations were made on various issues of housing at the seminar held in the BIP conference hall.

BIP general secretary Adil Muhammed Khan made a presentation on ‘Social Housing Concept and Housing for Low-income People in Bangladesh’.

He said the SDG target 11 stresses access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums by 2030.

About housing deficit in Dhaka city, he spoke of an imbalance between the total number of households and the total housing stock.

The floor area per person is as small as 1.2 square metres, he mentioned.

Mr Khan identified the scarcity of land and high building cost as major constraints for housing development in Dhaka.

High land price also excludes poor from land and home ownership, he added.

Experts said there is neither cost recovery nor cross subsidisation approach here by which housing can be ensured as it is a basic right.

According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), there was a housing shortfall of 4.6 million units for 43.43 million people in 2010. The shortage is projected to reach 8.5 million units for 60 million urban people by 2021, it revealed.

In her presentation, Arc planner Salma A Shafi said the total urban population will reach 100 million by 2050.

The government even does not supply 1.0 per cent of the total housing demand, she added. A minimum of 0.1 million housing units should be supplied in the market every year, Ms Shafi said.

The government talks about only 10,000 units supplied by them, she noted.

Ms Shafi said the limited number of pilot projects will not be effective in solving housing crisis. Housing finance is a major part of the issue.

She suggested approval of an urban sector policy, an implementable housing policy and redevelopment of old areas like Shahjahanpur and the old town.

Meanwhile, Mr Toufique said the government has a gazette on social housing, but according to the housing policy 2016, it will not provide housing for all.

Rather it will work as a facilitator, he mentioned.

Only people from river erosion areas, destitute women left by husbands and the elderly will be eligible for housing, he added.

Housing has been recognised as an industry which means lots of incentives can be provided in the sector, said the noted planner.

About exorbitant land prices, he said the prices of land in Dhaka are close to that of New York or Tokyo which is a bubble.

If this cannot be controlled, Mr Toufique said, people will continue to grab rivers and other water bodies.

Speakers said urban financing cannot be ensured by the government only. It can be make a strategic alliance of public, private and community to solve housing problem.

Housing is a priority issue in all the countries as social instability will be there if housing problem is not resolved.

But housing has become a lucrative business for the realtors which provide housing for the better-off.

There is hardly any trend among developers for low-cost housing. It is the government which should engage the developers in doing so, they stated. Rajuk and other agencies undertake housing projects mostly for professional groups and other affluent sections, they observed.

The speakers said privatisation happens in the open economy, but there is no equilibrium in society now.

Housing is not a business opportunity rather it should be recognised as a right, the speakers went on.

For that, political will is the main issue, they said.

Bangladesh should have 4cr taxpayers

Bangladesh should have 4cr taxpayers

Muhith says as tax fair begins

Star Business Report

Bangladesh now has around one crore taxpayers and the number should increase to four crore to help the government provide better public services and widen the tax net, Finance Minister AMA Muhith said yesterday.

“The government creates opportunities for us to get education and make livelihoods. And you pay tax as the state creates the scope.”

“This is a virtuous cycle where we pay tax and the government spends the money to provide services. Through this cycle, all make progress,” the minister said.

Muhith’s remark came at the opening of a weeklong income tax fair at Officers Club Dhaka.

This is the ninth edition of the show, which also kicked off in other divisional cities to facilitate taxpayers in completing tax related formalities for 2018-19.

The fair will also take place for four days in all districts, two days in 32 upazilas and for one day through mobile trucks in 70 upazilas between November 13 and November 19. “The enthusiasm of people has really turned the event as a fair,” he said, referring to the queue of taxpayers who were waiting for the show to open.

Muhith said the number of taxpayers, which was once 7 lakh, is over 30 lakh now.

“And I saw somewhere yesterday (Monday) that nearly one crore people pay tax through various ways where various types of tax are taken into account. This is a good achievement,” he said.

“But we are not satisfied with the number in view of the pace of development of our country. More people should join and pay tax,” said Muhith.

He said once many were reluctant to pay tax. “That mentality no more prevails as many youths pay tax spontaneously. This is a remarkable achievement for us as a nation,” said Muhith.

Citing development of the country’s road network, he said the connectivity has integrated all economic activities.

“It has created a single economy and increased the pace of the economy,” he said, adding that disparity among people is reducing fast owing to economic advancement.

“Disparity still remains but it is falling,” said Muhith, citing the declining rate of poverty, which now stands at 22 percent, down from 70 percent a couple of decades ago.

“This means that still 3 crore of the population live in poverty. We have to lift them out of poverty,” he said.

The tax fair has been gaining popularity since 2010, said National Board of Revenue Chairman Md Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan.

Apart from Dhaka, the tax fair opened at Mohammad Ali Gymnasium in Sylhet.

Tax officials at the field office in the region said they were working to attain a target of issuing 18,000 new taxpayers identification numbers to expand the tax net.

The amount of tax submitted on the first day of the fair around the country was 5 percent or Tk 218 crore higher compared to that collected on the same day the previous year.

Moreover, the NBR received 46,401 returns, up 49 percent year-on-year.

In the port city, the tax fair was inaugurated at GEN Convention Centre.

The weeklong fair began on the premises of the office of Khulna tax zone at Boyra of the city.

Some 1,036 returns were submitted at the Khulna fair.

In Rajshahi, the tax fair began at the income tax building, which saw a high turnout of taxpayers on the first day yesterday, according to correspondents.

The NBR organised the same kind of events in Barishal city and Cumilla.

Exploit finished leather, treble export earnings

Exploit finished leather, treble export earnings

Industry players call for more compliance

Southeast Asia’s internet economy to exceed $240b by 2025: study

Southeast Asia’s internet economy to exceed $240b by 2025: study

Reuters, Singapore

Southeast Asia’s internet economy is expected to exceed $240 billion by 2025, a joint study by Google and Temasek Holdings showed, a fifth more than previously estimated, as more consumers use their smartphones to go online.

The study, first published in 2016, encompasses ride-hailing, e-commerce, online travel and online media. The latest report released on Monday adds new sectors such as online food delivery, as well as subscription music and video on demand.

It estimated that the gross merchandise value (GMV) of the region’s internet economy has reached $72 billion in 2018, rising 37 percent from the year earlier.

The GMV of e-commerce in the region will exceed $23 billion in 2018, the report said, and rise more than four times to exceed $100 billion by 2025, helped by increased consumer trust.

It credited e-commerce companies – Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s Lazada, Sea Ltd’s Shopee, and Indonesia’s Tokopedia – for helping develop the sector.

The report estimated that the GMV of the competitive ride hailing sector, with the addition of online food delivery, has reached $7.7 billion in 2018.

“Powered by the ambitions of Go-Jek and Grab to become Southeast Asia’s ‘everyday apps’, we project that ride hailing will reach almost $30 billion by 2025,” the Google-Temasek study said.

Both Alphabet Inc’s Google and Singapore state investor Temasek have invested in Go-Jek. Temasek-backed Vertex Ventures is an early investor in Grab.

The Indonesian internet economy is forecast to grow to $100 billion by 2025, accounting for $4 of every $10 spent in the region, the report said.

It added that 2018 was on track to be a record year for fundraising for the region’s internet economy companies, with $9.1 billion raised in the first half of the year, nearly as much as in all of 2017.

The research covers Southeast Asia’s six largest economies -Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The growth is being boosted by the world’s most engaged internet users, of whom more than 90 percent connect to the web through their smartphones, it said.

The report said the increasing availability of affordable smartphones and the rollout of faster and more reliable mobile telecommunication services were supporting Southeast Asia’s growing internet user base.

DSE turnover rises 44pc

DSE turnover rises 44pc

Star Business Report

Turnover at the Dhaka Stock Exchange jumped 44 percent yesterday riding on stocks of a group of 10 companies that solely contributed around 31 percent of the total turnover.

Industry experts also attributed the rise to the stocks of Saiham Textile and Saiham Cotton, which attracted a total of Tk 74.34 crore, almost 10 times higher than their regular turnover.

Some Tk 250.19 crore of the day’s total turnover of Tk 803.05 crore—up from Tk 556.54 crore on Sunday—came from Saiham Textile, Intech Limited, United Power, Kattali Textile, Saiham Cotton, Khulna Power, Monno Ceramic, Indo-Bangla Pharmaceuticals, BBS Cables and SK Trims.

“It is not the business growth of the 10 companies that fuel the turnover. Rumours played the main role here,” said a top official of a merchant bank, preferring anonymity.

“This is not a good sign.”

“It may hamper their investment, but the good thing is turnover is rising, which means investors have liquid money and confidence,” he said. The key index of the Dhaka stocks remained almost the same as the benchmark index of the DSE, DSEX, rose 1.04 points or 0.01 percent to close the day at 5,257.10 yesterday.

Saiham Textile was the top traded stock with 93.16 lakh shares worth Tk 53.67 crore changing hands.

Among the major sectors, food increased 0.5 percent, pharmaceuticals 0.4 percent and energy 0.2 percent while engineering fell 0.1 percent, bank 0.2 percent, NBFI 0.9 percent and telecom 1.4 percent.

IT Consultants was the day’s best performer with a 9.98 percent gain while BBS Cables was the biggest loser, shedding 10 percent.

Losers outnumbered gainers by 157 to 126, while 52 securities remained unchanged.

The key index of the port city bourse also rose by 7.03 points, finishing the day at 9,781.64.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange traded 1.01 crore shares and mutual fund units worth Tk 31.98 crore.

Modern retail growing at 15pc a year

Modern retail growing at 15pc a year

Star Business Report

Modern retail, which replaces traditional grocery shops, has been growing at 15 percent a year since 2014 in Bangladesh riding on changing consumer behavior, said a top official of Nielson, a leading global market researcher.

In 2018 the total turnover is estimated to be Tk 2,180 crore, up from Tk 1,342 crore in 2014.

“Modern trade will emerge stronger,” said Diptanshu Ray, market leader for Nielson’s South Asia East region, at a retail congress organised by the Bangladesh Brand Forum (BBF) at the capital’s Le Méridien hotel.

Ray presented a keynote on ‘What’s next in modern retail’ at the event ‘Bangladesh Retail Congress 2018’, which was attended by 350 professionals.

Bangladesh’s largest retail chain Shwapno presented the congress along with Lotto. The Daily Star is the strategic partner of the initiative to shape modern retail in the country.

Discussants pointed out the changing behaviours of consumers following the advent and growth of e-commerce, advancement of technology, rising health awareness and consciousness about quality products and services.

Population growth, increased urbanisation and rising income, particularly the growing middleclass population in the country, have been driving the growth of consumerism in Bangladesh, which is expected to be the 26th largest economy in the world by 2030.

“The promises are real,” Ray said, adding that higher incomes are leading to greater spending in the economy. Each year for the next decade, the annual income of about 20 lakh additional Bangladeshis will reach $5,000 or more.

Consumer’s rising purchasing power is increasing the demand for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), generating $3.1 billion in FMCG sales.

“And, it is growing,” Ray said.

Even in this landscape, traditional trade, which accounts for 98 percent of total retail sales, will evolve and continue to dominate.

But modern retail, which expanded over the last two decades, will grow in the days to come.

“Modern trade is growing and gaining share in Asia.  Convenience is the fastest growing format across Asian markets,” he said, adding that changing priorities of shoppers would facilitate modern trade.

Some 51 percent of the shoppers like a wide range of product categories. Some 73 percent would not mind paying little more for higher quality, according to Ray.

Expansion of e-commerce will also contribute to the reshaping of retail.

“Bangladesh is poised to be an e-commerce player on the world FMCG stage, in spite of its relatively nascent entry.”

The Nielson official also touched on shoppers’ behaviour.

“Shoppers are highly price aware and sensitive to price changes,” Ray said, adding that shoppers are becoming more brand loyal and less store loyal for promotions.

Retail interface is changing, where established behaviours are being disrupted and new business models are emerging, said Prachi Tiwari, engagement director of Landor, in another keynote session.

“Shopping experience is becoming increasingly mobile first.  Mobile technologies will increasingly influence every stage of the customer’s shopping journey.”

Approximately 71 percent of the consumers are now trawling websites to find the best price.

“Consumers demand instant gratification, want the right product, right price, and right away. They are also more savvy and well-informed about products in the market.”

Conscious consumerism is on the rise, according to Tiwari.

“We have to ensure that customers’ experience is at the best level when they are in our stores,” said Mohammed Tareque Aziz, dean of College of Business Administration of the International University of Business Agriculture and Technology. 

Shopping is a source of recreation for many in Bangladesh owing to lack of options, said Rezaul Kabir, chief operating officer of clothing retailer Sailo.

And, customers keep in mind the service they receive from sales associates, he said.

Payment through digital channel is increasing but for that to flourish more very good mobile network support is needed, he added.

Many refrain from making payment through bank cards for fear of fraud, said Mohammad Ashraful Islam, chief operating officer of Aarong.

The retail scenario will change in the next 10 years, said Arafatur Rahman, head of marketing of Pran-RFL.

At the inaugural session of the event, Sohel Tanvir Khan, business director of ACI Logistics, and Shariful Islam, founder and managing director of BBF, spoke among others.

More women joining labour force: ILO

More women joining labour force: ILO

Star Business Report

Female participation in Bangladesh’s labour force has increased to 36.3 percent in 2017 from 33.2 percent in 2016 thanks to the flourishing garment industry, according to a report of the International Labour Organisation.

The participation of male workers in the labour force also increased slightly to 80.7 percent in 2017 from 79.4 percent in 2016.

So overall, labour force participation in Bangladesh in 2017 increased to 58.3 percent from 56.1 percent, the ILO report released said.

Female workforce participation steadily grew between 2010 and 2017 because of the higher growth of the garment sector, said the report titled ‘Asia-Pacific Employment and Social Outlook 2018’.

Although the participation of women workers in the labour force was low in South Asian nations, the ratios of Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have held steady or increased over time.

Beyond national differences, trends vary across rural and urban areas and among women with high educational attainment and poorly educated women.

All the Southern Asian countries show low female labour force participation ratios (LFPRs) with the exception of Nepal, which stands out with a high rate of 79.3 percent in 2008, the last year of its latest Labour Force Survey.

In contrast, India’s female LFPR was 26.2 percent in 2011–12, down from 32.6 percent in 2004–05, despite the country’s strong economic growth.

Many potential causes have been identified for the limitations of women’s access to the labour market in South Asian countries.

The main drivers of the decline are increased enrolment of young women in secondary schools, rising household incomes, lack of suitable employment opportunities for women in the non-farm sector and measurement issues, according to the report.

A fifth driver can be added, which is the absence of child care options.

“Such factors are frequently noted as those that are somehow quantifiable, unlike areas of social norms, which are difficult to put into words, let alone measure.”

“That said, what is clear is that attitudes matter and that social norms are an important factor — if not the most important factor — behind the low female LFPRs in Southern Asia.” The acceptability of women working outside the home to women in the Southern Asian countries comes out well below other countries in the region and the world at large.

In Afghanistan and Pakistan, 41 percent and 52 percent of the women respectively stated they considered it unacceptable for women to have paid work outside the home, even if they desired it.

Many surveyed women did not find it acceptable for women to work outside the home. “Pushing for more female labour force participation will remain an uphill battle in the region as long as women are not pushing for it,” the report added.